quinta-feira, setembro 25, 2008

A República Bolivariana da Europa e o Supervisor




A República bolivariana da Europa e o supervisor

Uma ideia singular: a publicidade, tal como a liberdade de imprensa, é nefasta para os consumidores…

Paulo Gonçalves Marcos

Escrevemos hoje sobre um pequeno país, ficcionado, de forma rectangular, banhado pelo Oceano. Imagine o caro leitor que um dos seus supervisores, se habituou a uma vida complacente, típica de organizações sem concorrência: altas remunerações para os seus gestores, pouca ou nenhuma efectividade no trabalho que deveria desempenhar: o de supervisor! Neste país, um grande banco iludiu os reguladores, anos a fio, com práticas pouco menos que recomendáveis: empréstimos ao filho do presidente executivo, com perdão de juros; empréstimos a sociedades ‘offshore’ que usavam os fundos mutuados para subscreverem aumentos de capital no banco; entre outras tropelias. Noutro banco, mais pequeno, a mistura entre política e negócios era célebre, com negócios opacos em série, activos “extravagantes” em vez de crédito ou depósitos. Esperaria o leitor que um supervisor que não supervisione fosse reformulado por inteiro, incluindo a sua equipa de alta direcção. Que práticas e procedimentos fossem revistos de forma criteriosa. Ao invés, o supervisor sujeita a consulta pública um “Aviso” em que pretende regular a publicidade dos bancos do país em causa! Qual panaceia dos males que o afligiam…Aqui chegados bem nos lembramos de como regimes e sistemas políticos, não concorrenciais, actuam no sentido de limitar a liberdade de expressão ou de opinião na vida cívica e política. E como na esfera empresarial apertam a malha sobre a comunicação empresarial, a publicidade e demais formas de contacto entre as empresas e seus potenciais ou actuais clientes. O mesmo raciocínio bafiento que o “consumidor” (ou o “povo”) não tem capacidade de discernimento suficiente. Claro que na esteira do grande paladino actual da “democracia”, também aqui o método é de estilo “bolivariano revolucionário”. Uma ideia singular: a publicidade, tal como a liberdade de imprensa, é nefasta para os consumidores…que têm que ser protegidos a todo o transe. Claro que todos os estudos académicos que provam que a publicidade aumenta o nível concorrencial e faz baixar os preços foram ignorados…Em sentido literal, o “Aviso” em consulta pública levará, se não for modificado, a que os ‘disclaimers’ e ‘disclosures’, da comunicação das instituições financeiras, sejam de tal maneira extensos e de relevada importância que a publicidade radiofónica, televisiva ou na imprensa, seja inviável do ponto de vista de inserção de conteúdos informativos. A mera menção a uma taxa de juro obrigará a citar o período de aplicação, se é de cariz temporário ou permanente, qual a taxa anual efectiva global… A consequência será a de que o Sector Financeiro irá ter mais dificuldade no seu papel formativo (sim, a publicidade informa e forma, tanto mais quanto mais intensa for a concorrência). E então teremos que também os bancos ver-se-ão restritos a seguir a esteira das telecomunicações ou dos brinquedos: cariz lúdico, humor, “felinos” em catadupa…E para completar o ramalhete, o digníssimo supervisor atribui igual “gravidade” às campanhas de incentivo à poupança que ao crédito. Ambas sujeitas aos mesmos requisitos de “sanidade”. Afinal nada de mais natural num país com uma das mais altas taxas de endividamento da Europa, com uma taxa de poupanças baixa, onde o crédito mal parado está a crescer a 30% ao ano…E, paradoxalmente, onde os operadores telefónicos e internet, localizados ‘offshore’ (afinal o mesmo paradigma das casas de apostas desportivas…) fazem impunemente campanhas de crédito de adesão instantânea, sem comprovativos de rendimentos ou bens…Um ‘subprime’ de crédito ao consumo em potência….Para acabar, o mesmo supervisor tem a peregrina ideia de pretender substituir a imprensa livre e as associações de defesa dos consumidores, através da publicação de preçários e de comparações entre produtos. Um caso clássico em que a má moeda (supervisor inapto) expulsa a boa (imprensa livre e associações de consumidores)? Como é fácil de perceber, esta “estória” é uma ficção…

www.antonuco.blogspot.com www.marketinginovador.com
____

Paulo Gonçalves Marcos, Economista ‘marketeer’ e professor universitário

Comentários
Paulo Curto de Sousa (curtodesousa@gmail.com)
Absolutamente de acordo. Será que em outros países europeus é também assim? Garanta-se a informação mas deixe-se espaço à criatividade. Afinal um bom anúncio, além de dar a conhecer, também deverá fazer gostar e fazer agir. E de uma forma eficaz e economicamente viável. Abraços.
antonio duarte
Pobre de nós que a nuvem é tomada por Juno.
Célia Ramos
Artigo denso mas ainda assim um colunista que se destaca por nao falar de lugares comuns.
Paulo Lage (paulo.d.lage@gmail.com)
Nem tanto ao mar, nem tanto à terra!Passou-se de uma supervisão muito liberal para a regulamentação absoluta.O facto do aparecimento de alguma publicidade agressiva e enganosa levou à soluçao de controle mais facil e politicamente mais visivél.É tambem certo que com as facilidades acrescidas de acesso ao credito por parte dos bancos e o apelo ao consumismo exacerbado com que somos bombardeados todos os dias faz de uma parte dos consumidores menos esclarecidos e mais influenciaveis perfeitos "patos".O problema é que a dimensão da situação se esta a tornar , mesmo para os bancos dificil de controlar e , á boa maneira Portuguesa:" casa roubada , trancas(alarme,videovigilancia e que mais haja) á porta"! Parabens pelo artigo!!
Anabela Faro
Professor, vivemos numa fase de propaganda. Os ministros a entregarem computadores a criancinhas...os reguladores a fingirem que regulam...
Pedro V. Matos
paulo ja tinha lido hoje o teu artigo, que achei fabuloso..mas noa tinha ainda tido tempo de te enviar um email..
RAF (rodrigo.adao.fonseca@gmail.com)
Paulo, Excelente artigo:) Uma das dificuldades mais dificeis de ultrpassar está na esperança que tantas pessoas depositam no regulador, essa figura supra-humana, com olhos de lince, que justifica a sua existência na imposição de trâmites burocráticos (ou serão "burrocráticos"), e que é capaz, do alto do seu posto de vigia, de monitorar a realidade e milhões de operações que diariamente se articulam. Uma regulação subsidiária da auto-regulação, focada no que importa (atenção nos focos de ganância e nos conflitos de interesse), que é o que eu defendo, é considerada uma "ideia radical". O que está a dar é sermos todos vigiados por um big brother, que tudo quer ver, e que rapidamente será aprisionado por gente que só actuará, enquanto "regulador", quando isso interessar aos interesses particulares de quem, ao momento, tiver ascendente. Ab RAF
Raquel S.
Gostei do artigo. Confesso que esperava a sua reacção apaixonada (no final de contas também está desse lado da barricada...) Mas a minha reacção (também apaixonada...) é de que uma maior transparência na publicidade dos bancos beneficia o cidadão comum. Sinceramente. É a minha opinião de cidadã e de consultora de estratégia. Não tenho pena da Banca de retalho, digo-lhe... Conheço poucas actividades onde por exemplo, ajustes de tarifário, que passam despercebidas ao consumidor 99,9% das vezes, podem ser usados como alavancas faceis de receitas. Com a informação que os bancos têm dos consumidores podem trata-los como verdadeiros fantoches... não é verdade? Já vi cada coisa... Para já não falar que há muito pouca gente que de facto saiba quanto paga pelos produtos bancários que tem... Bem, deixo-lhe a provocação! Mas concordo consigo no restante... medidas deste tipo não são resposta capaz e desejada aos problemas de supervisão do sistema
Raquel S.
Gostei do artigo. Confesso que esperava a sua reacção apaixonada (no final de contas também está desse lado da barricada...) Mas a minha reacção (também apaixonada...) é de que uma maior transparência na publicidade dos bancos beneficia o cidadão comum. Sinceramente. É a minha opinião de cidadã e de consultora de estratégia. Não tenho pena da Banca de retalho, digo-lhe... Conheço poucas actividades onde por exemplo, ajustes de tarifário, que passam despercebidas ao consumidor 99,9% das vezes, podem ser usados como alavancas faceis de receitas. Com a informação que os bancos têm dos consumidores podem trata-los como verdadeiros fantoches... não é verdade? Já vi cada coisa... Para já não falar que há muito pouca gente que de facto saiba quanto paga pelos produtos bancários que tem... Bem, deixo-lhe a provocação! Mas concordo consigo no restante... medidas deste tipo não são resposta capaz e desejada aos problemas de supervisão do sistema
AA
Muito interessante. Concordo com a primeira parte, de facto vive-se um clima de impunidade a todos os níveis, e quem regula prefere uma abordagem "laissez faire et laissez passer". Em relação à publicidade dos bancos devo dizer que acho que é necessário uma maior regulação deste tópico, não são poucas as pessoas que me dizem "Aquele banco/ aquele produto oferece 10%" como é obvio eles não percebem que "não há almoços gratis" o que se ganha de um lado tem que se pagar de outro... Acho por isso que a publicação dos prazos das taxas importantes, acho também importante outra medida mencionada no projecto para consulta pública, a regulamentação da utilização de palavras como "Grátis" e sinónimos.
Carlos Gonçalves (cg@espacoavila.com)
Um dos fenómenos mais aflitivos é sem dúvida a promoção do crédito por via de publicidade enganosa e sem critérios de rigor na informação que é prestada ao consumidor. Para o bem de muitas famílias sem formação, e para o bem de todos, seria necessário um maior controlo destas acções.
Teresa Loureiro
Muito obrigada, vai dar algum jeito de facto :). Não perco esperança de o vir a ter como "meu" autor. Não quer mesmo pensar nisso? Dávamos a volta ao mercado...
Ana P.
Óptimo artigo e infelizmente nada fictício. Devo confessar que ando um pouco alarmada com esta crise financeira, especialmente desde que vários orgãos de comunicação social começaram a explicar o que acontece se o nosso banco for à falência. Ponho-me a pensar se tanta informação não quer dizer qualquer coisa...má. Não sei que fazer ao dinheiro, apetece-me levantar tudo e meter debaixo do colchão...
Luis Rasquilha (lrasquilha@gmail.com)
boa Paulo Abraço Luis

terça-feira, setembro 23, 2008

Paying for PR

Paying for PR -- But Only When It Works

For Gift-Basket Maker, Pay-Per-Placement Is Better Than Going Solo and Cheaper Than Traditional Firms

Cynthia McKay admits she learned public relations the hard way.

The first PR professional she hired burned through $3,000 in two weeks with no results. When Ms. McKay struck out on her own, she wound up on a national television newsmagazine in a segment on rudeness in America -- as an example of how not to behave.

For years, Ms. McKay floundered trying to raise awareness for Le Gourmet Gift Basket Inc., her small company in Castle Rock, Colo. Then she found a solution: pay-for-placement public relations.

She now works with an independent PR agent, who charges only when a story about her company makes it into the press. That's a contrast to traditional PR firms, which can charge retainers as high as $20,000 per month for even small-company clients regardless of results.

Making a Pitch

A mention in a news article or television broadcast can have a big payoff for a little-known business. But small companies often struggle to get such media coverage. Most can't afford the big fees traditional agencies charge or in-house expertise to guide them. And solo efforts may yield only rejections or, worse, bad press. So many small companies are constantly looking for some middle ground.

[Le Gourmet] Steve Groer

Cynthia McKay, chief executive officer of Le Gourmet Gift Basket Inc.

One approach that's getting an increasing amount of attention is pay-per-placement PR. Critics point out, however, that it isn't for everybody. For one thing, they say, many pay-per-placement firms usually won't take on tasks other than pitching stories to the media. That means no strategy development, marketing or other work that many small businesses may need for an effective PR campaign.

Public relations "is more than being in the media," says Rhoda Weiss, chairwoman and chief executive officer of the Public Relations Society of America, a trade group in New York. "When you work with a [full-service] public-relations firm, they will develop a communications strategy."

Still, pay-per-placement PR is gaining traction with people like Ms. McKay, Le Gourmet's chief executive, who simply wants exposure for her 28-employee company, which sells gift baskets though distributors around the world.

'Nickled and Dimed'

Ms. McKay, 52, began her PR efforts in 1992 after an ad she bought in a home-building magazine brought in no new business. Hoping to get more for her money, she hired a PR agent whom she met through a business associate. Ms. McKay paid an initial $1,000 retainer. Four days later, she was asked for another $2,000.

The agent "was so charismatic," Ms. McKay recalls. "Every time she went to a cocktail party and mentioned me, she'd charge me. ...I thought, 'Of course I have to pay for her connections.' "

But after three weeks, Ms. McKay says, it became clear that she might not see results for a long time.

So, she decided to go at it alone. Ms. McKay wrote to 70 news outlets and garnered one mention in a local shopping column. She got three customer calls and two bounced checks. She earned another write-up in a paper -- but no new customers -- when she joined the local chamber of commerce.

Feeling desperate, Ms. McKay called a local TV show, hoping to appear in a segment. The producer not-so-politely declined. "That put me in my place," she recalls.

Soon after, Ms. McKay saw a PR firm mentioned in an article in a local paper about a grand opening of a woman-owned business. She called the firm and said that she'd been burned in the past. Its pitch to her: After an initial $1,200 for five placements, it would charge her per article. She signed on.

A cover story about careers in a well-known women's magazine led to a huge sales jump, Ms. McKay says. She paid the firm $2,500 for the placement.

Still, she wasn't completely satisfied with the arrangement. Sometimes, the firm didn't seem to do much work for her. If, say, a journalist emailed the firm asking if it knew of any female business owners, she says, a representative would just forward the email to her -- and charge.

A story mentioning Le Gourmet's donations of gift baskets to soldiers in Iraq was picked up by the Associated Press, which distributes articles to newspapers across the country. The PR firm charged Ms. McKay each time a newspaper picked up the story, for a total of about $11,000. She felt "nickel and dimed," she says.

Ms. McKay decided to stop working with the firm. She looked into big PR firms in Denver, but quickly realized she couldn't afford the retainers.

Good and Bad Exposure

So she tried again on her own. Last year, Ms. McKay heard that television newsmagazine "20/20" wanted to interview female CEOs. She got in touch with the show and in an interview revealed that she sometimes kept her cellphone turned on in movie theaters and slept next to her laptop. She assumed she'd be portrayed as a busy business owner.

But when the segment aired, she learned it was titled "That's So Rude! What's Happened to Manners in America?" Five minutes into the segment, she says, the hate email began rolling in. Six consulting clients left. "I never thought we'd recover," she says.

A "20/20" spokeswoman declined to comment on this episode.

A few months later, Ms. McKay hired another PR agent, Margie Zable Fisher in Boca Raton, Fla.

Ms. Zable Fisher had read about Ms. McKay's business and initially contacted her. Reassured that she could simply end the contract at any point if she wasn't seeing results, Ms. McKay paid $1,000 to get started. Ms. Zable Fisher asked Ms. McKay about her PR dream (appearing on "The Oprah Winfrey Show") and what she wasn't so interested in (radio interviews).

Ms. Zable Fisher reaches out to media contacts when she thinks Ms. McKay might be a fit for them -- on topics from women-owned businesses to her animal-rights activism.

For instance, Ms. Zable Fisher says her bill for arranging the interview that led to this article will be $6,000. Landing a feature in a large newspaper tops her price scale, which starts at $500 for a mention on a low-traffic Web site or small radio or TV show. Ms. Zable Fisher occasionally forwards interview opportunities without requesting payment. Ms. McKay likes the exposure she has gained so far.

Despite her struggles, Ms. McKay says the time spent on public relations has been worth it. She estimates that 80% of her company's growth came from spreading the word through the media. But she hasn't made the Oprah show yet.

Write to Simona Covel at simona.covel@wsj.com

Economic Woes Force Firms to Rethink Messages

Economic Woes Force Firms to Rethink Messages

New Ad Spots Seek to Allay Fears Amid Current Crisis

Wall Street's meltdown has left Madison Avenue scrambling to amend ad messages in hopes of calming investor fears -- and, in some cases, to seize on the drama to win new business.

Monday, Oppenheimer Funds is kicking off a $20 million ad effort. But last week's financial-market crisis threw a monkey wrench into the firm's plans. While the campaign's theme -- highlighting the company's ability to help customers make sense of the market -- jibed with the current upheaval, Oppenheimer decided to delay two of the TV ads until the markets settle down.

[Economic Woes Force Firms to Rethink Messages] OppenheimerFunds

Oppenheimer's spot says, 'We follow proven principles like investing for the long term so you can ride out the market's ups and downs.'

The spot Oppenheimer is going with features a woman on an escalator. "At Oppenheimer, we follow proven principles like investing for the long term so you can ride out the market's ups and downs," says a voice-over.

The two ads that are being pushed back for now are a spot that promotes retirement and another that is largely about asset allocation and balancing risk and reward. Those two ads are "more about taking proactive steps to adjust a portfolio and make an investment decision, and I think at this point we need to wait a few weeks," says Bruce Dunbar, director of corporate communications at Oppenheimer. Right now, Mr. Dunbar says, "people will be thinking about how they are going to readjust in the short term, versus thinking about long term."

Oppenheimer wasn't alone in having to do some last-minute rejiggering of ads. About two weeks ago, insurance giant Zurich Financial Services Group began thinking of how the economic environment might affect its marketing message, particularly a new $300 million global campaign also kicking off Monday. The ads are running in about 140 countries.

While Zurich's ad effort always intended to focus on how to better help consumers with insurance, Arun Sinha, Zurich's chief marketing officer, wanted to directly address the recent economic turmoil. The company went through its entire campaign, including 130 print ads and 53 different versions of a TV spot looking for appropriate spots. It was too late to change the TV ads, but Mr. Sinha decided to kick off the campaign with new print ads in key markets like the U.S., the U.K., Germany and Italy.

He says he gave his ad agency 24 hours to come up with a new print ad that would reassure consumers about the current crisis. The new ads, crafted by Publicis, say the company is "here to give you real help in an uncertain world, backed by the financial strength and stability of the Zurich American Insurance Company...It's help that's here now." The ads will run in newspapers like The Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times.

The original print campaign talked about how Zurich can solve specific problems, like getting a car repaired quickly after an accident.

Some companies have worked quickly to turn the trouble into a business opportunity. The Wall Street Journal crafted an ad, which ran last week, that pushes subscriptions.

It's not just revamping the creative that is keeping ad agencies busy in the crisis. Havas's Euro RSCG is "fielding round-the-clock research" to figure out how consumers are feeling, says Andrew Benett, co-president of Euro's New York arm. The firm works on behalf of several financial companies, such as Charles Schwab and Oppenheimer.

Madison Avenue ad executives say that while some companies will be quick to jump in to reassure consumers and investors, it isn't a strategy for everyone. Some firms, they say, will be leery about telling the public that things are OK, just in case they eventually become engulfed in the downward slide.

So far, there hasn't been a rash of companies pulling ads entirely off the air. While American International Group pulled some corporate ads last week, others remain committed to riding out the storm. Mr. Sinha says that Zurich never considered pulling back ads and that it is as important as ever to show consumers that the company is "strong and that we are here for them."

Write to Suzanne Vranica at suzanne.vranica@wsj.com and Stephanie Kang at stephanie.kang@wsj.com

Copyright 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved

segunda-feira, setembro 15, 2008

Wall Street awakes to 2 storied firms gone

Wall Street awakes to 2 storied firms gone

By JOE BEL BRUNO, CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER and MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Business Writers2 hours, 15 minutes ago

When Wall Street woke up Monday morning, two more of its storied firms had vanished.

Lehman Brothers, burdened by $60 billion in soured real-estate holdings, said it is filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after attempts to rescue the 158-year-old firm failed.

Bank of America Corp. said it is snapping up Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. in an $50 billion all-stock transaction.

The demise of the independent Wall Street institutions came as shock waves from the 14-month-old credit crisis roiled the U.S. financial system six months after the collapse of Bear Stearns.

The world's largest insurance company, American International Group Inc., also was forced into a restructuring.

And a global consortium of banks, working with government officials in New York, announced a $70 billion pool of funds to lend to troubled financial companies.

The aim, according to participants who spoke to The Associated Press, was to prevent a worldwide panic on stock and other financial exchanges.

Ten banks — Bank of America, Barclays, Citibank, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and UBS — each agreed to provide $7 billion "to help enhance liquidity and mitigate the unprecedented volatility and other challenges affecting global equity and debt markets."

The Federal Reserve also chipped in with more largesse in its emergency lending program for investment banks. The central bank announced late Sunday that it was broadening the types of collateral that financial institutions can use to obtain loans from the Fed.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the discussions had been aimed at identifying "potential market vulnerabilities in the wake of an unwinding of a major financial institution and to consider appropriate official sector and private sector responses."

Futures pegged to the Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 250 points in electronic trading Sunday evening, pointing to a sharply lower open for the blue chip index Monday morning. Asian stock markets also tumbled, with India's Sensex sinking more than 5 percent. Japan and Hong Kong were closed for holidays.

The stunning weekend developments took place as voters, who rank the economy as their top concern, prepare to elect a new president in seven weeks. It likely will spur a much greater focus by presidential candidates — Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama — and members of Congress on the need for stricter financial regulation.

Samuel Hayes, finance professor emeritus at Harvard Business School, said the Bush administration may get a lot of blame for the situation, which could benefit Obama.

"Just the psychological impact of this kind of failure is going to be significant," he said. "It will color people's feelings about their well-being and the integrity of the financial system."

Lehman Brothers' announcement that it is filing for bankruptcy came after all potential buyers walked away. Potential suitors were spooked by the U.S. Treasury's refusal to provide any takeover aid, as it had done six months ago when Bear Stearns faltered and earlier this month when it seized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Employees emerging from Lehman's headquarters near the heart of Times Square Sunday night carried boxes, tote bags and duffel bags, rolling suitcases, framed artwork and spare umbrellas. Many were emblazoned with the Lehman Brothers name.

TV trucks lined Seventh Avenue opposite the building, while barricades at the building's main entrance attempted to keep workers and onlookers from gumming up the steady flow of pedestrians flowing in and out of Times Square.

Some workers had moist eyes while a few others wept and shared hugs. Most who left the building quietly declined interviews.

People snapped pictures with cameras and their phones. Observers pressed up against a police barricade drew the ire of one man who emerged from the building and shouted: "Are you enjoying watching this? You think this is funny?"

Merrill Lynch, another investment bank laid low by the crisis that was triggered by rising mortgage defaults and plunging home values in the U.S., agreed to be acquired by Bank of America for 0.8595 shares of Bank of America common stock for each Merrill Lynch common share.

That values Merrill at $29 a share, a 70 percent premium over the brokerage's Friday closing price of $17.05, but well below what Merrill was worth at its peak in early 2007, when its shares traded above $98.

Charlotte, N.C.,-based Bank of America has the most deposits of any U.S. bank, while Merrill Lynch is the world's largest brokerage. A combination of the two would create a global financial giant to rival Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank in terms of assets.

Strategically, most industry analysts say it's a good fit. If the deal goes according to plan, Bank of America will be able to offer Merrill's retail brokerage services to its huge customer base. There is not a great deal of overlap between the two companies — Bank of America does have an investment bank already, but it has never been terribly strong.

Where there is duplication, however, the combination of the two companies could result in more layoffs. Both Merrill and Bank of America have already cut thousands of investment banking jobs over the past year.

The deal would not come without risks, however. Merrill Lynch, like many of its Wall Street peers, has been struggling with tight credit markets and billions of dollars in assets tied to mortgages that have plunged in value. Merrill has reported four straight quarterly losses.

Bank of America's own finances are far from robust. As consumer credit deteriorates, the bank has seen its profits decline, and the company is still in the midst of absorbing the embattled mortgage lender Countrywide Financial, which it acquired in January.

Insurer AIG, hit hard by deterioration in the credit markets, said Sunday it is reviewing its operations and discussing possible options with outside parties to improve its business after a week when its stock dropped 45 percent amid concerns about the company's financial underpinnings. It was working with New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo and a representative of the governor's office through the weekend to craft a solution that protects policyholders, according to Dinallo's spokesman David Neustadt.

"It's clear we're one step away from a financial meltdown," said Nouriel Roubini, chairman of the consulting firm RGE Monitor.

The meetings that began Friday night were a who's who of financial heavyweights: Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, Timothy Geithner, president of the New York Fed, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox, and a host of CEOs, including Vikram Pandit of Citigroup Inc., Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase & Co., John Mack of Morgan Stanley, Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Merrill Lynch & Co.'s John Thain.

For all their efforts, Lehman appeared ready to file for bankruptcy.

The end of Lehman may not stop the financial crisis that has gripped Wall Street for months, analysts said. More investment banks could disappear soon.

The independent broker-dealers "are going the way of the dodo bird," said Bert Ely, an Alexandria, Va.,-based banking consultant.

That's partly because some of the firms, particularly Merrill, made bad bets on real estate. But several analysts said that investment companies will need the deep pockets of commercial banks to survive the next few years.

On Sunday, there was also an emergency trading session being held at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association to "reduce risk associated with a potential Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. bankruptcy." The ISDA, which arranges trades for derivatives, said it was allowing customers to make trades and unwind positions linked to Lehman.

Roubini said it's difficult to accurately gauge the health of companies like Merrill because their financial health depends on how they value complex securities. As a result, their finances aren't very transparent, he said.

That can lead to a loss of confidence in the financial markets, he said, which can overwhelm an investment bank even if it is financially healthy by some measures.

"Once you lose confidence, the fundamentals matter less," he said.

The common denominator of the financial crisis, analysts said, is the bursting of the housing bubble. Home prices have dropped on average 25 percent so far. Roubini predicted they could drop another 15 percent.

The crisis has begun to slow the broader economy as banks make fewer loans and consumers have begun cutting spending. Many economists are now forecasting that the economy could slip into recession by the end of this year and early next year.

That, in turn, could cause additional losses for commercial banks on credit cards, auto loans and student loans.

The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at 2 percent, below inflation, when it meets Tuesday. It was possible, however, that the central bank might decide in coming weeks to cut rates if such a move is seen as needed to calm turbulent financial markets.

The International Monetary Fund predicted earlier this year that total losses from the credit crisis could reach almost $1 trillion. So far, banks have only taken about $350 billion in losses.

Commercial banks are also starting to feel the pinch. Eleven have closed so far this year, including Pasadena, Calif.-based IndyMac Bank, which had $32 billion in assets and $19 billion in deposits.

Christopher Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics, a research firm, predicts that approximately 110 banks with $850 billion in assets could close by next July. That's out of 8,400 federally insured institutions, he said, which together hold $13 trillion in assets.

Individual customers are starting to get nervous about the financial health of their banks for the first time in generations, he said. Whalen's firm analyzes the safety and soundness of banks for business clients, but began receiving inquiries from individuals in the past two months for the first time, he said.

"If we don't get ahead of this, we are going to face a run on the retail banks by election day," he said.

___

AP Business Writers Madlen Read, Tim Paradis and Stephen Bernard in New York, Martin Crutsinger in Washington, Ieva Augstums in Charlotte and Michael Liedtke in San Francisco contributed to this report.

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