quinta-feira, setembro 25, 2008

A República Bolivariana da Europa e o Supervisor




A República bolivariana da Europa e o supervisor

Uma ideia singular: a publicidade, tal como a liberdade de imprensa, é nefasta para os consumidores…

Paulo Gonçalves Marcos

Escrevemos hoje sobre um pequeno país, ficcionado, de forma rectangular, banhado pelo Oceano. Imagine o caro leitor que um dos seus supervisores, se habituou a uma vida complacente, típica de organizações sem concorrência: altas remunerações para os seus gestores, pouca ou nenhuma efectividade no trabalho que deveria desempenhar: o de supervisor! Neste país, um grande banco iludiu os reguladores, anos a fio, com práticas pouco menos que recomendáveis: empréstimos ao filho do presidente executivo, com perdão de juros; empréstimos a sociedades ‘offshore’ que usavam os fundos mutuados para subscreverem aumentos de capital no banco; entre outras tropelias. Noutro banco, mais pequeno, a mistura entre política e negócios era célebre, com negócios opacos em série, activos “extravagantes” em vez de crédito ou depósitos. Esperaria o leitor que um supervisor que não supervisione fosse reformulado por inteiro, incluindo a sua equipa de alta direcção. Que práticas e procedimentos fossem revistos de forma criteriosa. Ao invés, o supervisor sujeita a consulta pública um “Aviso” em que pretende regular a publicidade dos bancos do país em causa! Qual panaceia dos males que o afligiam…Aqui chegados bem nos lembramos de como regimes e sistemas políticos, não concorrenciais, actuam no sentido de limitar a liberdade de expressão ou de opinião na vida cívica e política. E como na esfera empresarial apertam a malha sobre a comunicação empresarial, a publicidade e demais formas de contacto entre as empresas e seus potenciais ou actuais clientes. O mesmo raciocínio bafiento que o “consumidor” (ou o “povo”) não tem capacidade de discernimento suficiente. Claro que na esteira do grande paladino actual da “democracia”, também aqui o método é de estilo “bolivariano revolucionário”. Uma ideia singular: a publicidade, tal como a liberdade de imprensa, é nefasta para os consumidores…que têm que ser protegidos a todo o transe. Claro que todos os estudos académicos que provam que a publicidade aumenta o nível concorrencial e faz baixar os preços foram ignorados…Em sentido literal, o “Aviso” em consulta pública levará, se não for modificado, a que os ‘disclaimers’ e ‘disclosures’, da comunicação das instituições financeiras, sejam de tal maneira extensos e de relevada importância que a publicidade radiofónica, televisiva ou na imprensa, seja inviável do ponto de vista de inserção de conteúdos informativos. A mera menção a uma taxa de juro obrigará a citar o período de aplicação, se é de cariz temporário ou permanente, qual a taxa anual efectiva global… A consequência será a de que o Sector Financeiro irá ter mais dificuldade no seu papel formativo (sim, a publicidade informa e forma, tanto mais quanto mais intensa for a concorrência). E então teremos que também os bancos ver-se-ão restritos a seguir a esteira das telecomunicações ou dos brinquedos: cariz lúdico, humor, “felinos” em catadupa…E para completar o ramalhete, o digníssimo supervisor atribui igual “gravidade” às campanhas de incentivo à poupança que ao crédito. Ambas sujeitas aos mesmos requisitos de “sanidade”. Afinal nada de mais natural num país com uma das mais altas taxas de endividamento da Europa, com uma taxa de poupanças baixa, onde o crédito mal parado está a crescer a 30% ao ano…E, paradoxalmente, onde os operadores telefónicos e internet, localizados ‘offshore’ (afinal o mesmo paradigma das casas de apostas desportivas…) fazem impunemente campanhas de crédito de adesão instantânea, sem comprovativos de rendimentos ou bens…Um ‘subprime’ de crédito ao consumo em potência….Para acabar, o mesmo supervisor tem a peregrina ideia de pretender substituir a imprensa livre e as associações de defesa dos consumidores, através da publicação de preçários e de comparações entre produtos. Um caso clássico em que a má moeda (supervisor inapto) expulsa a boa (imprensa livre e associações de consumidores)? Como é fácil de perceber, esta “estória” é uma ficção…

www.antonuco.blogspot.com www.marketinginovador.com
____

Paulo Gonçalves Marcos, Economista ‘marketeer’ e professor universitário

Comentários
Paulo Curto de Sousa (curtodesousa@gmail.com)
Absolutamente de acordo. Será que em outros países europeus é também assim? Garanta-se a informação mas deixe-se espaço à criatividade. Afinal um bom anúncio, além de dar a conhecer, também deverá fazer gostar e fazer agir. E de uma forma eficaz e economicamente viável. Abraços.
antonio duarte
Pobre de nós que a nuvem é tomada por Juno.
Célia Ramos
Artigo denso mas ainda assim um colunista que se destaca por nao falar de lugares comuns.
Paulo Lage (paulo.d.lage@gmail.com)
Nem tanto ao mar, nem tanto à terra!Passou-se de uma supervisão muito liberal para a regulamentação absoluta.O facto do aparecimento de alguma publicidade agressiva e enganosa levou à soluçao de controle mais facil e politicamente mais visivél.É tambem certo que com as facilidades acrescidas de acesso ao credito por parte dos bancos e o apelo ao consumismo exacerbado com que somos bombardeados todos os dias faz de uma parte dos consumidores menos esclarecidos e mais influenciaveis perfeitos "patos".O problema é que a dimensão da situação se esta a tornar , mesmo para os bancos dificil de controlar e , á boa maneira Portuguesa:" casa roubada , trancas(alarme,videovigilancia e que mais haja) á porta"! Parabens pelo artigo!!
Anabela Faro
Professor, vivemos numa fase de propaganda. Os ministros a entregarem computadores a criancinhas...os reguladores a fingirem que regulam...
Pedro V. Matos
paulo ja tinha lido hoje o teu artigo, que achei fabuloso..mas noa tinha ainda tido tempo de te enviar um email..
RAF (rodrigo.adao.fonseca@gmail.com)
Paulo, Excelente artigo:) Uma das dificuldades mais dificeis de ultrpassar está na esperança que tantas pessoas depositam no regulador, essa figura supra-humana, com olhos de lince, que justifica a sua existência na imposição de trâmites burocráticos (ou serão "burrocráticos"), e que é capaz, do alto do seu posto de vigia, de monitorar a realidade e milhões de operações que diariamente se articulam. Uma regulação subsidiária da auto-regulação, focada no que importa (atenção nos focos de ganância e nos conflitos de interesse), que é o que eu defendo, é considerada uma "ideia radical". O que está a dar é sermos todos vigiados por um big brother, que tudo quer ver, e que rapidamente será aprisionado por gente que só actuará, enquanto "regulador", quando isso interessar aos interesses particulares de quem, ao momento, tiver ascendente. Ab RAF
Raquel S.
Gostei do artigo. Confesso que esperava a sua reacção apaixonada (no final de contas também está desse lado da barricada...) Mas a minha reacção (também apaixonada...) é de que uma maior transparência na publicidade dos bancos beneficia o cidadão comum. Sinceramente. É a minha opinião de cidadã e de consultora de estratégia. Não tenho pena da Banca de retalho, digo-lhe... Conheço poucas actividades onde por exemplo, ajustes de tarifário, que passam despercebidas ao consumidor 99,9% das vezes, podem ser usados como alavancas faceis de receitas. Com a informação que os bancos têm dos consumidores podem trata-los como verdadeiros fantoches... não é verdade? Já vi cada coisa... Para já não falar que há muito pouca gente que de facto saiba quanto paga pelos produtos bancários que tem... Bem, deixo-lhe a provocação! Mas concordo consigo no restante... medidas deste tipo não são resposta capaz e desejada aos problemas de supervisão do sistema
Raquel S.
Gostei do artigo. Confesso que esperava a sua reacção apaixonada (no final de contas também está desse lado da barricada...) Mas a minha reacção (também apaixonada...) é de que uma maior transparência na publicidade dos bancos beneficia o cidadão comum. Sinceramente. É a minha opinião de cidadã e de consultora de estratégia. Não tenho pena da Banca de retalho, digo-lhe... Conheço poucas actividades onde por exemplo, ajustes de tarifário, que passam despercebidas ao consumidor 99,9% das vezes, podem ser usados como alavancas faceis de receitas. Com a informação que os bancos têm dos consumidores podem trata-los como verdadeiros fantoches... não é verdade? Já vi cada coisa... Para já não falar que há muito pouca gente que de facto saiba quanto paga pelos produtos bancários que tem... Bem, deixo-lhe a provocação! Mas concordo consigo no restante... medidas deste tipo não são resposta capaz e desejada aos problemas de supervisão do sistema
AA
Muito interessante. Concordo com a primeira parte, de facto vive-se um clima de impunidade a todos os níveis, e quem regula prefere uma abordagem "laissez faire et laissez passer". Em relação à publicidade dos bancos devo dizer que acho que é necessário uma maior regulação deste tópico, não são poucas as pessoas que me dizem "Aquele banco/ aquele produto oferece 10%" como é obvio eles não percebem que "não há almoços gratis" o que se ganha de um lado tem que se pagar de outro... Acho por isso que a publicação dos prazos das taxas importantes, acho também importante outra medida mencionada no projecto para consulta pública, a regulamentação da utilização de palavras como "Grátis" e sinónimos.
Carlos Gonçalves (cg@espacoavila.com)
Um dos fenómenos mais aflitivos é sem dúvida a promoção do crédito por via de publicidade enganosa e sem critérios de rigor na informação que é prestada ao consumidor. Para o bem de muitas famílias sem formação, e para o bem de todos, seria necessário um maior controlo destas acções.
Teresa Loureiro
Muito obrigada, vai dar algum jeito de facto :). Não perco esperança de o vir a ter como "meu" autor. Não quer mesmo pensar nisso? Dávamos a volta ao mercado...
Ana P.
Óptimo artigo e infelizmente nada fictício. Devo confessar que ando um pouco alarmada com esta crise financeira, especialmente desde que vários orgãos de comunicação social começaram a explicar o que acontece se o nosso banco for à falência. Ponho-me a pensar se tanta informação não quer dizer qualquer coisa...má. Não sei que fazer ao dinheiro, apetece-me levantar tudo e meter debaixo do colchão...
Luis Rasquilha (lrasquilha@gmail.com)
boa Paulo Abraço Luis

terça-feira, setembro 23, 2008

Paying for PR

Paying for PR -- But Only When It Works

For Gift-Basket Maker, Pay-Per-Placement Is Better Than Going Solo and Cheaper Than Traditional Firms

Cynthia McKay admits she learned public relations the hard way.

The first PR professional she hired burned through $3,000 in two weeks with no results. When Ms. McKay struck out on her own, she wound up on a national television newsmagazine in a segment on rudeness in America -- as an example of how not to behave.

For years, Ms. McKay floundered trying to raise awareness for Le Gourmet Gift Basket Inc., her small company in Castle Rock, Colo. Then she found a solution: pay-for-placement public relations.

She now works with an independent PR agent, who charges only when a story about her company makes it into the press. That's a contrast to traditional PR firms, which can charge retainers as high as $20,000 per month for even small-company clients regardless of results.

Making a Pitch

A mention in a news article or television broadcast can have a big payoff for a little-known business. But small companies often struggle to get such media coverage. Most can't afford the big fees traditional agencies charge or in-house expertise to guide them. And solo efforts may yield only rejections or, worse, bad press. So many small companies are constantly looking for some middle ground.

[Le Gourmet] Steve Groer

Cynthia McKay, chief executive officer of Le Gourmet Gift Basket Inc.

One approach that's getting an increasing amount of attention is pay-per-placement PR. Critics point out, however, that it isn't for everybody. For one thing, they say, many pay-per-placement firms usually won't take on tasks other than pitching stories to the media. That means no strategy development, marketing or other work that many small businesses may need for an effective PR campaign.

Public relations "is more than being in the media," says Rhoda Weiss, chairwoman and chief executive officer of the Public Relations Society of America, a trade group in New York. "When you work with a [full-service] public-relations firm, they will develop a communications strategy."

Still, pay-per-placement PR is gaining traction with people like Ms. McKay, Le Gourmet's chief executive, who simply wants exposure for her 28-employee company, which sells gift baskets though distributors around the world.

'Nickled and Dimed'

Ms. McKay, 52, began her PR efforts in 1992 after an ad she bought in a home-building magazine brought in no new business. Hoping to get more for her money, she hired a PR agent whom she met through a business associate. Ms. McKay paid an initial $1,000 retainer. Four days later, she was asked for another $2,000.

The agent "was so charismatic," Ms. McKay recalls. "Every time she went to a cocktail party and mentioned me, she'd charge me. ...I thought, 'Of course I have to pay for her connections.' "

But after three weeks, Ms. McKay says, it became clear that she might not see results for a long time.

So, she decided to go at it alone. Ms. McKay wrote to 70 news outlets and garnered one mention in a local shopping column. She got three customer calls and two bounced checks. She earned another write-up in a paper -- but no new customers -- when she joined the local chamber of commerce.

Feeling desperate, Ms. McKay called a local TV show, hoping to appear in a segment. The producer not-so-politely declined. "That put me in my place," she recalls.

Soon after, Ms. McKay saw a PR firm mentioned in an article in a local paper about a grand opening of a woman-owned business. She called the firm and said that she'd been burned in the past. Its pitch to her: After an initial $1,200 for five placements, it would charge her per article. She signed on.

A cover story about careers in a well-known women's magazine led to a huge sales jump, Ms. McKay says. She paid the firm $2,500 for the placement.

Still, she wasn't completely satisfied with the arrangement. Sometimes, the firm didn't seem to do much work for her. If, say, a journalist emailed the firm asking if it knew of any female business owners, she says, a representative would just forward the email to her -- and charge.

A story mentioning Le Gourmet's donations of gift baskets to soldiers in Iraq was picked up by the Associated Press, which distributes articles to newspapers across the country. The PR firm charged Ms. McKay each time a newspaper picked up the story, for a total of about $11,000. She felt "nickel and dimed," she says.

Ms. McKay decided to stop working with the firm. She looked into big PR firms in Denver, but quickly realized she couldn't afford the retainers.

Good and Bad Exposure

So she tried again on her own. Last year, Ms. McKay heard that television newsmagazine "20/20" wanted to interview female CEOs. She got in touch with the show and in an interview revealed that she sometimes kept her cellphone turned on in movie theaters and slept next to her laptop. She assumed she'd be portrayed as a busy business owner.

But when the segment aired, she learned it was titled "That's So Rude! What's Happened to Manners in America?" Five minutes into the segment, she says, the hate email began rolling in. Six consulting clients left. "I never thought we'd recover," she says.

A "20/20" spokeswoman declined to comment on this episode.

A few months later, Ms. McKay hired another PR agent, Margie Zable Fisher in Boca Raton, Fla.

Ms. Zable Fisher had read about Ms. McKay's business and initially contacted her. Reassured that she could simply end the contract at any point if she wasn't seeing results, Ms. McKay paid $1,000 to get started. Ms. Zable Fisher asked Ms. McKay about her PR dream (appearing on "The Oprah Winfrey Show") and what she wasn't so interested in (radio interviews).

Ms. Zable Fisher reaches out to media contacts when she thinks Ms. McKay might be a fit for them -- on topics from women-owned businesses to her animal-rights activism.

For instance, Ms. Zable Fisher says her bill for arranging the interview that led to this article will be $6,000. Landing a feature in a large newspaper tops her price scale, which starts at $500 for a mention on a low-traffic Web site or small radio or TV show. Ms. Zable Fisher occasionally forwards interview opportunities without requesting payment. Ms. McKay likes the exposure she has gained so far.

Despite her struggles, Ms. McKay says the time spent on public relations has been worth it. She estimates that 80% of her company's growth came from spreading the word through the media. But she hasn't made the Oprah show yet.

Write to Simona Covel at simona.covel@wsj.com

Economic Woes Force Firms to Rethink Messages

Economic Woes Force Firms to Rethink Messages

New Ad Spots Seek to Allay Fears Amid Current Crisis

Wall Street's meltdown has left Madison Avenue scrambling to amend ad messages in hopes of calming investor fears -- and, in some cases, to seize on the drama to win new business.

Monday, Oppenheimer Funds is kicking off a $20 million ad effort. But last week's financial-market crisis threw a monkey wrench into the firm's plans. While the campaign's theme -- highlighting the company's ability to help customers make sense of the market -- jibed with the current upheaval, Oppenheimer decided to delay two of the TV ads until the markets settle down.

[Economic Woes Force Firms to Rethink Messages] OppenheimerFunds

Oppenheimer's spot says, 'We follow proven principles like investing for the long term so you can ride out the market's ups and downs.'

The spot Oppenheimer is going with features a woman on an escalator. "At Oppenheimer, we follow proven principles like investing for the long term so you can ride out the market's ups and downs," says a voice-over.

The two ads that are being pushed back for now are a spot that promotes retirement and another that is largely about asset allocation and balancing risk and reward. Those two ads are "more about taking proactive steps to adjust a portfolio and make an investment decision, and I think at this point we need to wait a few weeks," says Bruce Dunbar, director of corporate communications at Oppenheimer. Right now, Mr. Dunbar says, "people will be thinking about how they are going to readjust in the short term, versus thinking about long term."

Oppenheimer wasn't alone in having to do some last-minute rejiggering of ads. About two weeks ago, insurance giant Zurich Financial Services Group began thinking of how the economic environment might affect its marketing message, particularly a new $300 million global campaign also kicking off Monday. The ads are running in about 140 countries.

While Zurich's ad effort always intended to focus on how to better help consumers with insurance, Arun Sinha, Zurich's chief marketing officer, wanted to directly address the recent economic turmoil. The company went through its entire campaign, including 130 print ads and 53 different versions of a TV spot looking for appropriate spots. It was too late to change the TV ads, but Mr. Sinha decided to kick off the campaign with new print ads in key markets like the U.S., the U.K., Germany and Italy.

He says he gave his ad agency 24 hours to come up with a new print ad that would reassure consumers about the current crisis. The new ads, crafted by Publicis, say the company is "here to give you real help in an uncertain world, backed by the financial strength and stability of the Zurich American Insurance Company...It's help that's here now." The ads will run in newspapers like The Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times.

The original print campaign talked about how Zurich can solve specific problems, like getting a car repaired quickly after an accident.

Some companies have worked quickly to turn the trouble into a business opportunity. The Wall Street Journal crafted an ad, which ran last week, that pushes subscriptions.

It's not just revamping the creative that is keeping ad agencies busy in the crisis. Havas's Euro RSCG is "fielding round-the-clock research" to figure out how consumers are feeling, says Andrew Benett, co-president of Euro's New York arm. The firm works on behalf of several financial companies, such as Charles Schwab and Oppenheimer.

Madison Avenue ad executives say that while some companies will be quick to jump in to reassure consumers and investors, it isn't a strategy for everyone. Some firms, they say, will be leery about telling the public that things are OK, just in case they eventually become engulfed in the downward slide.

So far, there hasn't been a rash of companies pulling ads entirely off the air. While American International Group pulled some corporate ads last week, others remain committed to riding out the storm. Mr. Sinha says that Zurich never considered pulling back ads and that it is as important as ever to show consumers that the company is "strong and that we are here for them."

Write to Suzanne Vranica at suzanne.vranica@wsj.com and Stephanie Kang at stephanie.kang@wsj.com

Copyright 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved

segunda-feira, setembro 15, 2008

Wall Street awakes to 2 storied firms gone

Wall Street awakes to 2 storied firms gone

By JOE BEL BRUNO, CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER and MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Business Writers2 hours, 15 minutes ago

When Wall Street woke up Monday morning, two more of its storied firms had vanished.

Lehman Brothers, burdened by $60 billion in soured real-estate holdings, said it is filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after attempts to rescue the 158-year-old firm failed.

Bank of America Corp. said it is snapping up Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. in an $50 billion all-stock transaction.

The demise of the independent Wall Street institutions came as shock waves from the 14-month-old credit crisis roiled the U.S. financial system six months after the collapse of Bear Stearns.

The world's largest insurance company, American International Group Inc., also was forced into a restructuring.

And a global consortium of banks, working with government officials in New York, announced a $70 billion pool of funds to lend to troubled financial companies.

The aim, according to participants who spoke to The Associated Press, was to prevent a worldwide panic on stock and other financial exchanges.

Ten banks — Bank of America, Barclays, Citibank, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and UBS — each agreed to provide $7 billion "to help enhance liquidity and mitigate the unprecedented volatility and other challenges affecting global equity and debt markets."

The Federal Reserve also chipped in with more largesse in its emergency lending program for investment banks. The central bank announced late Sunday that it was broadening the types of collateral that financial institutions can use to obtain loans from the Fed.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the discussions had been aimed at identifying "potential market vulnerabilities in the wake of an unwinding of a major financial institution and to consider appropriate official sector and private sector responses."

Futures pegged to the Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 250 points in electronic trading Sunday evening, pointing to a sharply lower open for the blue chip index Monday morning. Asian stock markets also tumbled, with India's Sensex sinking more than 5 percent. Japan and Hong Kong were closed for holidays.

The stunning weekend developments took place as voters, who rank the economy as their top concern, prepare to elect a new president in seven weeks. It likely will spur a much greater focus by presidential candidates — Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama — and members of Congress on the need for stricter financial regulation.

Samuel Hayes, finance professor emeritus at Harvard Business School, said the Bush administration may get a lot of blame for the situation, which could benefit Obama.

"Just the psychological impact of this kind of failure is going to be significant," he said. "It will color people's feelings about their well-being and the integrity of the financial system."

Lehman Brothers' announcement that it is filing for bankruptcy came after all potential buyers walked away. Potential suitors were spooked by the U.S. Treasury's refusal to provide any takeover aid, as it had done six months ago when Bear Stearns faltered and earlier this month when it seized Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Employees emerging from Lehman's headquarters near the heart of Times Square Sunday night carried boxes, tote bags and duffel bags, rolling suitcases, framed artwork and spare umbrellas. Many were emblazoned with the Lehman Brothers name.

TV trucks lined Seventh Avenue opposite the building, while barricades at the building's main entrance attempted to keep workers and onlookers from gumming up the steady flow of pedestrians flowing in and out of Times Square.

Some workers had moist eyes while a few others wept and shared hugs. Most who left the building quietly declined interviews.

People snapped pictures with cameras and their phones. Observers pressed up against a police barricade drew the ire of one man who emerged from the building and shouted: "Are you enjoying watching this? You think this is funny?"

Merrill Lynch, another investment bank laid low by the crisis that was triggered by rising mortgage defaults and plunging home values in the U.S., agreed to be acquired by Bank of America for 0.8595 shares of Bank of America common stock for each Merrill Lynch common share.

That values Merrill at $29 a share, a 70 percent premium over the brokerage's Friday closing price of $17.05, but well below what Merrill was worth at its peak in early 2007, when its shares traded above $98.

Charlotte, N.C.,-based Bank of America has the most deposits of any U.S. bank, while Merrill Lynch is the world's largest brokerage. A combination of the two would create a global financial giant to rival Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank in terms of assets.

Strategically, most industry analysts say it's a good fit. If the deal goes according to plan, Bank of America will be able to offer Merrill's retail brokerage services to its huge customer base. There is not a great deal of overlap between the two companies — Bank of America does have an investment bank already, but it has never been terribly strong.

Where there is duplication, however, the combination of the two companies could result in more layoffs. Both Merrill and Bank of America have already cut thousands of investment banking jobs over the past year.

The deal would not come without risks, however. Merrill Lynch, like many of its Wall Street peers, has been struggling with tight credit markets and billions of dollars in assets tied to mortgages that have plunged in value. Merrill has reported four straight quarterly losses.

Bank of America's own finances are far from robust. As consumer credit deteriorates, the bank has seen its profits decline, and the company is still in the midst of absorbing the embattled mortgage lender Countrywide Financial, which it acquired in January.

Insurer AIG, hit hard by deterioration in the credit markets, said Sunday it is reviewing its operations and discussing possible options with outside parties to improve its business after a week when its stock dropped 45 percent amid concerns about the company's financial underpinnings. It was working with New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo and a representative of the governor's office through the weekend to craft a solution that protects policyholders, according to Dinallo's spokesman David Neustadt.

"It's clear we're one step away from a financial meltdown," said Nouriel Roubini, chairman of the consulting firm RGE Monitor.

The meetings that began Friday night were a who's who of financial heavyweights: Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, Timothy Geithner, president of the New York Fed, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox, and a host of CEOs, including Vikram Pandit of Citigroup Inc., Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase & Co., John Mack of Morgan Stanley, Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Merrill Lynch & Co.'s John Thain.

For all their efforts, Lehman appeared ready to file for bankruptcy.

The end of Lehman may not stop the financial crisis that has gripped Wall Street for months, analysts said. More investment banks could disappear soon.

The independent broker-dealers "are going the way of the dodo bird," said Bert Ely, an Alexandria, Va.,-based banking consultant.

That's partly because some of the firms, particularly Merrill, made bad bets on real estate. But several analysts said that investment companies will need the deep pockets of commercial banks to survive the next few years.

On Sunday, there was also an emergency trading session being held at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association to "reduce risk associated with a potential Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. bankruptcy." The ISDA, which arranges trades for derivatives, said it was allowing customers to make trades and unwind positions linked to Lehman.

Roubini said it's difficult to accurately gauge the health of companies like Merrill because their financial health depends on how they value complex securities. As a result, their finances aren't very transparent, he said.

That can lead to a loss of confidence in the financial markets, he said, which can overwhelm an investment bank even if it is financially healthy by some measures.

"Once you lose confidence, the fundamentals matter less," he said.

The common denominator of the financial crisis, analysts said, is the bursting of the housing bubble. Home prices have dropped on average 25 percent so far. Roubini predicted they could drop another 15 percent.

The crisis has begun to slow the broader economy as banks make fewer loans and consumers have begun cutting spending. Many economists are now forecasting that the economy could slip into recession by the end of this year and early next year.

That, in turn, could cause additional losses for commercial banks on credit cards, auto loans and student loans.

The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at 2 percent, below inflation, when it meets Tuesday. It was possible, however, that the central bank might decide in coming weeks to cut rates if such a move is seen as needed to calm turbulent financial markets.

The International Monetary Fund predicted earlier this year that total losses from the credit crisis could reach almost $1 trillion. So far, banks have only taken about $350 billion in losses.

Commercial banks are also starting to feel the pinch. Eleven have closed so far this year, including Pasadena, Calif.-based IndyMac Bank, which had $32 billion in assets and $19 billion in deposits.

Christopher Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics, a research firm, predicts that approximately 110 banks with $850 billion in assets could close by next July. That's out of 8,400 federally insured institutions, he said, which together hold $13 trillion in assets.

Individual customers are starting to get nervous about the financial health of their banks for the first time in generations, he said. Whalen's firm analyzes the safety and soundness of banks for business clients, but began receiving inquiries from individuals in the past two months for the first time, he said.

"If we don't get ahead of this, we are going to face a run on the retail banks by election day," he said.

___

AP Business Writers Madlen Read, Tim Paradis and Stephen Bernard in New York, Martin Crutsinger in Washington, Ieva Augstums in Charlotte and Michael Liedtke in San Francisco contributed to this report.

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sexta-feira, agosto 29, 2008

Marca Portugal


Marca Portugal

Irá algum potencial turista ou investidor reparar nas medalhas que iremos (não) ganhar em Londres 2012?

Paulo Gonçalves Marcos

Terminou a participação portuguesa nos Jogos e julgamos útil ressalvar alguns aspectos de gestão bem como aferir do seu potencial económico. Para a China ou Cuba, regimes ditatoriais, os Jogos são uma montra de afirmação política e de determinação ideológica. Para os restantes países, os Jogos podem ser outra coisa qualquer. O caso português, contudo, é mais complexo…Uma prestação paupérrima face aos objectivos contratualizados de quatro a cinco medalhas com mais dois punhados de finalistas…Resultados obtidos estão ao nível de “grandes potências desportivas” como a República Dominicana, Trindade e Tobago, Quirquizistão…Um atleta que se declara indisponível fisicamente para participar, quase nas vésperas do arranque do certame…outra, que após uma eliminação inglória, queria entrar de férias…os árbitros, as provas madrugadoras…Enfim, uma parte dos atletas portugueses exibiu ausência de sentido de responsabilidade ou de profissionalismo. Uma liderança do contingente português entre o patético e o politicamente absurdo. Um simpático governante que fala de sorte ou de azar, como se de um Casino se tratasse…Concorrer ao mais alto nível implica conjugar mais e melhor apoio técnico, nutricionistas, fisioterapeutas de topo, acompanhamento psicológico e o uso de antigos atletas como ‘coachers’. Como fazem os EUA, a Austrália, o Reino Unido …Para evitar os desaires típicos de uma síndrome Mamede, mais de vinte anos depois…. Demitem-se os responsáveis, cobertos de vergonha? Não…A fazer fé no Diário de Notícias (27.08) aumenta-se os prémios para os atletas…A velha e improdutiva política de deitar dinheiro para cima dos problemas. É claro que uma parte dos 15 milhões gastos na preparação destes Jogos poderia ser usada de forma economicamente mais proveitosa. Na Promoção de Portugal enquanto destino turístico no Mercado Escandinavo, por exemplo. Quase 25 milhões de cidadãos de elevado poder de compra, culturalmente bastante homogéneos, privados de Invernos amenos. E aos quais Portugal pode oferecer boa gastronomia, a simpatia das gentes, a beleza da língua e a sonoridade da mesma (afinal não é apenas o italiano que é cativante!), o sossego, a paisagem, as infraestruturas turísticas. Mas os Nórdicos demandam em grandes números a Espanha, Itália, Grécia ou mesmo destinos no Extremo Oriente (reparou o leitor no número enorme de vítimas nórdicas entre as do Tsunami?). Compram residências de segunda habitação em Espanha (quase 300 000 já o fizeram). E Portugal como se posiciona nos mercados nórdicos? Pouco presente em campanhas publicitárias, as parcas aparições na televisão ou na imprensa são facilmente suplantadas em intensidade pelos outros destinos supracitados (mas também pelo Chipre ou Malta). O sucesso de alguns produtos portugueses (mormente o Vinho) ainda não é capaz de per si só provocar o efeito de arrastamento cultural que lojas e produtos espanhóis ou italianos conseguem fazer. Quatro operadores turísticos, instalados nos mercados nórdicos, dominam os programas e as rotas que são propostas aos turistas escandinavos. Numa lógica de rotatividade ao longo do mediterrâneo, em sistema de quase leilão colocando em compita os destinos. Em que uma região ou país que num ano está na “moda” é obliterado no ano seguinte, em benefício de algum outro que mais benefícios ofereceu. E por isso a nossa estupefacção com a notícia do DN. Uma parte da verba poderia ser melhor usada em mais e melhor promoção e comunicação portuguesa (também com acções locais de alto impacto mediático) na Escandinávia e na tomada de uma participação accionista nas empresas distribuidoras (operadores turísticos) locais. Afinal não é diferente do que a Inapa, Corticeira Amorim ou Tafisa/Sonae fizeram aquando do seu processo de internacionalização! Compraram ou tomaram o controlo dos canais de distribuição. De que está à espera Portugal? De algum potencial turista ou investidor reparar nas medalhas que iremos (não) ganhar em Londres 2012?


www.antonuco.blogspot.com

____


Paulo Gonçalves Marcos, Economista

Comentários
Paulo Curto de Sousa (curtodesousa@gmail.com)
Para resultados desportivos de elevado nível torna-se fundamental conjugar um conjunto de factores, entre os quais o mais importante… a atitude e confiança dos atletas. E é um factor que pode ser desenvolvido e trabalhado. Aliás, algumas das soluções são referidas no artigo. Há que responsabilizar os atletas pelas suas prestações… mas principalmente pela forma como abordam e encaram a competição. E essa atitude vai determinar o nosso posicionamento. Seja no desporto, seja na economia global. Abraço.
vg
Estou de acordo que o tempo de espera das malas ,na Portela, é um assunto mais grave para o nosso turismo
Antonio Moreira
Para alcandorar a imagem de Portugal a outros planos a participação nos Jogos Olímpicos é irrelevante. São outros os produtos e serviços portugueses que podem contribuir para isso. O nosso vinho, claro, os nossos escritores e o nosso turismo. Nisto estou de acordo com o autor.
Maria Jesus Chapelle
Esta mania de deitar dinheiro para cima dos problemas assemelha-se a deitar combustível para uma fogueira. Nada resolve. Por isso de acordo.
Jorge Oliveira
Caro Paulo : "Uma liderança do contingente português entre o patético e o politicamente absurdo". Infelizmente é verdade, mas... a liderança do próprio país não sofre do mesmo? É tudo fruto da mesma árvore.
António d'Abril (ansylva@gmail.com)
Prezado Paulo G Marcos, Identifico-me com as suas preocupações e alternativas para promover a marca Portugal. Contudo, a maior prova desportiva mundial pode ser aproveitada para elevar a marca Portugal, tanto mais que este ano decorreu na China, grande potencial escoador dos produtos e serviços nacionais. As medalhas podem não alavancar a economia mas o ambiente em torno dos Jogos poderia ser uma oportunidade a não desperdiçar. Tal como na gestão desportiva, a empresarial e governamental não tem o culto da partilha de esforços (financeiros, humanos e materiais) para atingir o objectivo comum. Assim, Londres pode ser igual a Pequim ou Sidney!

Fed launches a new online resource to help in refinancing a home loan

Location: New York
Author: RiskCenter Staff
Date: Friday, August 29, 2008

The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday announced the launch of an online resource to help consumers make informed choices when refinancing a home loan.

"A Consumer’s Guide to Mortgage Refinancing," which is available at http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/refinancings/default.htm, contains useful tips and answers to frequently asked questions about the refinancing process. The information provided can help consumers determine when refinancing makes sense, what a refinancing will cost, and whether it is advisable to switch into a different type of mortgage. Consumers will also learn about mortgage terms and how to calculate the time it will take to recover refinancing costs before benefiting from a lower mortgage rate.

Choosing a mortgage is the most important financial decision many individuals will make. Consumers are encouraged to ask questions about loan features when talking to lenders, mortgage brokers, settlement or closing agents, and other professionals involved with the transaction to ensure that they have clear and complete answers.

The site also provides mortgage shopping worksheets, a glossary of mortgage terms, a link to an online refinancing calculator, a printable PDF format, and links to the Board’s other consumer education resources on mortgages.

In addition, the Board has updated the publication "What You Should Know about Home Equity Lines of Credit" to include information for consumers on line of credit freezes or reductions in lines of credit. The updated information is available at http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/equity/equity_english.htm. Lenders and creditors may use the earlier version of the print version of this material until existing supplies are exhausted.

quinta-feira, agosto 28, 2008

Let the mind rule over the body

"Now if you are going to win any battle you have to do one thing. You have to make the mind run the body. Never let the body tell the mind what to do. The body will always give up. It is always tired in the morning, noon, and night. But the body is never tired if the mind is not tired."

- George S. Patton, U.S. Army General, 1912 Olympian

segunda-feira, agosto 25, 2008

Medals count

As recently as 1988, China won just five golds.

In these Games, it has been powered by eight golds in weightlifting, seven in diving and five in shooting. While the Chinese have won their share of heavily contested competitions, such as women’s gymnastics, the focus on more obscure sports has paid dividends.

China doesn’t apologize for it. Nor should it. It has its goal and the perfect plan to attain it.

sexta-feira, agosto 22, 2008

Requiem por Jan Palach

«Requiem por Jan Palach» (*)

Arde o coração de Praga.
Arde o corpo de Jan Palach.
Podemos dizer que o Rei Venceslau,
montado em seu cavalo,
também viu crescer o fogo
em que arde o coração de Praga.
João Huss, queimando o seu corpo,
também arde na Praça de Praga.
E os cavaleiros da Boémia,
o povo e os grão-Senhores,
os operários de Pilsen,
os poetas e cantores da Eslovóquia,
todos ardem nessa tarde e nessa praça.
Queimamos a coragem e o heroísmo,
queimamos a nossa infinita resistência.
Não é verdade, Soldado Schweik?

Eles vieram das estepes e disseram:
É proibido morrer pela Pátria,
é proibido resistir à opressão,
é proibido combater a ocupação. (Refrão)
É proibido amar os campos verdes do seu país.
É proibido amar o verde da esperança.
É proibido amar a Esperança

Estás proibido, Jan Palach!
És proibido, Jan Palach!
Estás proibido de existir, Jan Palach!
Estás proibido de morrer!

Eles vieram das estepes a disseram
todas estas palavras.
Mas também é verdade que disse um dia o Rei Venceslau,
montado em seu cavalo:
«Esta nossa terra será livre,
e nela crescerão livres
as virgens, as mães e os filhos.
E nela crescerão livres as flores.»
E das flores virão rosas,
rosas brancas, para cobrir a campa
de Jan Palach.
Arde o Coração de Praga,
arde o corpo de Jan Palach,
arde o corpo do Futuro.
E já cresce a Primavera!

(*) Letra de José Valle de Figueiredo, escrita no fim dos anos 60. Música de Manuel Rebanda. O intérprete que mais tem divulgado a canção é José Campos e Sousa.
Jan Palach imolou-se pelo fogo em Janeiro de 1969, em pleno centro da Praça Venceslau, em Praga, símbolo do fundador da nacionalidade.

domingo, agosto 17, 2008

Michael Phelps

BEIJING – Michael Phelps started the climb up a set of stairs, parting a sea of photographers and reaching upward past a railing for the arms of three women. One by one, his mother Debbie and sisters Hillary and Whitney leaned over and clenched him tight. When it was over, he buried his face in his mother’s shoulder and cried.

At long last, number eight—shared with three of the most important people in his life.

Several grams of gold hanging around Phelps’ neck had finally lifted the cinder blocks of pressure and expectations from his shoulders. Twelve years of buildup, spun forward from the day Phelps’ coach Bob Bowman told Debbie of her 11 year-old son, “He has the potential for greatness.”

Olympic Games, gold medals, world records—Bowman looked at a gangly bundle of right angles and hyperactivity and saw the biggest things.

“I thought he was nuts,” Debbie remembered later. “I told Bob that he was crazy. He was telling me all this stuff, and all I could think was, ‘Bob, I’m raising a middle school child.’ ”

What Bowman couldn’t see at the time, and what no coach truly knows until far down the road, is that Phelps would be the perfect star surrounded by the right constellation of support. A little tight-knit universe that was on public display Sunday, when Phelps climbed into the stands and embraced the three women who have all contributed—in ways small and large—to his greatness.

Three women who helped the middle school child grow into a man, and on Sunday watched him realize more than anyone could have imagined. A planet built in six days was conquered by Phelps in nine, producing eight gold medals, seven world records and one titanic sigh of relief.

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“When we train every day, sometimes there are sets or workouts that you don’t want to do, and Bob is always, ‘This is putting money in the bank, and at the end of the year you’re able to withdraw it.’ I made a big withdrawal,” Phelps said. “I guess I put a lot of money in the bank over the last four years and we withdrew pretty much every penny in the bank.”

But while the coach and star have made the biggest deposits, some of the small ones have been some of the most important.

Many from his mother Debbie, a middle school principal who went to the greatest lengths to keep his life normal when he was living under her roof, making it a point to ask him, “Are you happy? Should we be doing something different?” When Phelps moved to Ann Arbor, Mich., to train and also stretch his legs as an adult, Debbie grudgingly let him go. And when he would return to visit—hair too long, face too scruffy and hat tilted to one side—she bit her lip and let him find his own way.

“Michael is my son,” she said while describing those days, “and I will always love my son.”

And Phelps has returned that love in his own way as a young man, showcasing mettle over the last nine days that can only be found in the sturdiest of foundations. In a way, Debbie had raised her son for moments like these—raised him to be strong enough to accept the criticism and structure of Bowman, but also thoughtful enough to keep close to his heart the goals in his life and swimming career. Goals that Phelps would never openly reveal until Sunday, when he admitted, “They all happened this week.”

In some way, he owes part of this accomplished dream to his two older sisters—Hillary, the eldest and most laid-back, a swimmer who went on to star at the University of Richmond, and Whitney, the middle child who had her Olympic dreams cut short in the pool, but not before displaying the same fiery seed that eventually blossomed in Phelps. Phelps likes to say that Bowman was the one who taught him to dream the biggest dreams, but he does so in the wake of the women who came before him.

Which may be why his career arc is dotted with memories of his sisters, from Hillary taking “little Phelps” to the pool while she went through her own practices, to bounding around Whitney’s Olympic swimming trials in 1996, looking for autographs. He gets his cool from Hillary, who made friends fast and cherished the relationships she had outside the pool. And he gets his fire from Whitney, who at five years old punched her sister’s front tooth out after a shoving match.

US swimmer Michael Phelps (C) greets family members after the men's 4 x 100m medley relay swimming final medal ceremony at the National Aquatics Center during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games in Beijing on August 17, 2008. Michael Phelps became the first man to win eight gold medals at the same Olympics when the US won the men's 4x100m medley relay final in a new world record time.   AFP PHOTO / MARTIN BUREAU (Photo credit should read MARTIN BUREAU/AFP/Getty Images)
US swimmer Michael Phelps (C) …
Getty Images - Aug 17, 12:29 am EDT

Two women who have been there in the best of times, like Sunday, and the worst, like four years ago, when they witnessed a 16-year old boy taunting Phelps after his DWI arrest: “Hey Phelps! Go have a beer and get behind the wheel!” Hillary and Whitney wheeled around on the kid, their fists balled and eyes filled with lava. His only saving grace came from Phelps’ mother, who preferred to look it at like everything else: a lesson.

“The ups and downs, sometimes you have to have that,” Bowman said. “There will be bitter disappointments, and Michael dealt with those the best way he could. He handled it the right way. You just have to do that and have that support system around you. Michael has had that and he will always have that.”

And that was never more evident than Sunday, when Phelps stood on the medal podium for the last time at these Games, looked off into the distance at his mother and three sisters and finally let the emotion wash over him. Maybe that’s the last lesson he learned in all of this. Sometimes the best things in life aren’t accomplishing the impossible dreams or winning the most inconceivable races.

Sometimes it’s not about the gold medals you collect, but the people who you share them with.

quinta-feira, agosto 14, 2008

África e Português




África e português

Angola e Moçambique precisam desesperadamente de mais quadros qualificados e de maior esforço de formação nos mesmos.

Paulo Gonçalves Marcos

Fizemos, recentemente, viagens a Angola e a Moçambique, mais concretamente a suas cidades capitais. A confirmação, antes de mais, de que continuam a ser cidades de beleza ímpar. Plenas de encanto e magia. A gentileza de amigos, locais e expatriados, o contacto com empresas, quadros e, amiúde, com anónimos cidadãos, deram-nos a oportunidade de partilhar com os leitores do Diário Económico a nossa percepção do que está a acontecer nestes países e como seria desejável que evoluísse o seu processo de desenvolvimento. No início de Julho, Portugal formalizou o perdão da dívida externa de Moçambique para com o nosso país, avaliada em 249 milhões de euros. Mais que o contemporizar com o passado, um voto de confiança no futuro. E na Filda 2008, a grande montra das actividades económicas de Angola, a que o primeiro-ministro português dedicou uma visita, Portugal foi distinguido com os prémios de “melhor participação estrangeira” e de “maior representação oficial”. Em Maputo e Luanda, a primeira surpresa, a de verificar que em ambas as cidades se respira uma atmosfera efervescente de ambição, de espírito empreendedor, como se o céu fora o limite da imaginação e da acção humana. Vontade de reconstruir e de investir. Empresas com produtos e serviços inovadores, ao nível do que de melhor se faz nos mercados de primeiro mundo. Especialmente verdade nas telecomunicações, nos serviços financeiros e nas bebidas. Fez-nos lembrar a atmosfera que se respirava em Portugal em meados da década de oitenta…A mesma energia criativa. Claro que o estádio de desenvolvimento de Angola e Moçambique faz com que as prioridades tenham que ser diferentes de uma sociedade europeia. No caso daqueles dois países existem muitas similitudes: recuperar infraestruturas físicas; substituir importações de produtos essenciais; qualificar recursos humanos nas áreas da gestão de empresas (e Administração Pública), ensino, engenharia, medicina. Vitais para consolidar os avanços económicos e sociais da última década e preparar ambos os países para a integração nos fluxos comerciais internacionais. Esta integração, relembre-se, foi vital para que países do Extremo Oriente saíssem de situações de pobreza e devastação pós guerra (veja-se o paralelismo com ambos os países africanos), e se alcandorassem a patamares de desenvolvimento que hoje parecem invejáveis para os padrões africanos. Indonésia (com uma guerra civil), Coreia do Sul (guerra, civil?), Tailândia, Malásia, entre outros, à laia de exemplo. Como excelente base de partida o facto de quer em Angola quer em Moçambique se encontrarem quadros qualificados, de muito boa craveira intelectual e técnica. Com formação universitária e experiência profissional de cariz internacional que os expôs a sociedades e mercados mais sofisticados. Cerca de 50.000 portugueses em Angola (a maioria qualificados) e um número inferior em Moçambique (metade?), a que se juntam um contingente significativo de quadros locais que regressaram aos seus países de origem (frequentemente com carreiras de dez ou mais anos em Portugal). Mas aqui parece estar o principal constrangimento. Ambos os países precisam, desesperadamente, de mais quadros qualificados e de maior esforço de formação nos mesmos (sem surpresa, o Brasil financiou a construção de uma academia de formação para quadros superiores da Administração Pública Angolana…). Por isso a presença do primeiro-ministro português na Filda 2008 ou mesmo a intenção de reforçar o contingente de professores portugueses (nos ensinos básicos e secundário) são relevantes, mas quiçá insuficientes do ponto de vista estratégico. Uma política de concessão de vistos de trabalho e de turismo, mais expedita e menos burocrática, para nacionais lusos ou africanos; coadjuvada por uma política de bolsas de estudo no ensino superior português a jovens africanos de elevado potencial; e complementada com uma aposta na formação de executivos e quadros da Administração Pública parecem-nos vitais para assegurar a manutenção de elevadas taxas de crescimento em Angola e Moçambique e relações comerciais intensas entre estes países e Portugal. De facto, se não o fizermos quanto antes, a aposentação e eventual falecimento de elites portuguesas e africanas que estudaram juntas na então metrópole, ditarão a perda de influência económica portuguesa, com resultados potencialmente nefastos para os três países.

www.antonuco.blogspot.com

Comentários
Antonio Moreira
O ponto relevante prende-se, como diz o autor, com a mobilidade de pessoas entre os países africanos e Portugal. Sem essa, nada feito.
Maria Jesus Chapelle
Parabéns ao jornal que há vários dias dedica uma importância considerável a Angola. Parabéns ao autor, pela síntese e pela perspectiva. Pena que o Dr. Luís Nazará, na grande entrevista de hoje, não tenha percebido a relevância estratégica de África.
Paulo Curto de Sousa (curtodesousa@gmail.com)
Não podemos arriscar perder a influência económica, diplomática e social nos países de língua oficial portuguesa. E principalmente nestes 2 em virtude do potencial que encerram. Não nos esqueçamos que mais de metade das nossas exportações são para países onde se prevê um período de recessão muito em breve. Torna-se fundamental incrementarmos relações económicas em países onde a crise parece "ter passado ao lado" e onde se prevê um crescimento muito rápido brevemente. Com as afinidades linguísticas e históricas que temos com estes países seria um desperdício não os apoiarmos no esforço de desenvolvimento, tornando-nos parceiros privilegiados e assim incrementar as nossas exportações. Semear para depois colher... Abraços.
vg
Quando parte a sua próxima caravela , a ver se me inscrevo...?
João Pedro Neto
Excelente Artigo. Um abraço e boas férias ou bom trabalho, JPN
Miguel Monjardino
Caro Paulo Gonçalves Marcos, As "coisitas simples" dão sempre muito trabalho. Gostei muito. Espero que esteja bem. Miguel Monjardino
Paulo Marcos (paulo.marcos@marketinginovador.com)
Caro Vg estava com saudades! como calcula não tenho nenhuma...mas por isso podemos escrever com mais independência, não acha? As melhoras.
MAVERICK
Angola? Fiem-se e depois não se surpreendam! Moçambique? Seguramente!
Raquel Seabra
Ola Gostei muito do seu artigo! Quanto mais estou fora do país mais sinto vitais as relaçoes com os PALOP. Que Angola e Moçambique não sejam como o Brasil em que claramente apanhamos o comboio ja muito tarde... Espero que esteja tudo bem por Lisboa. Um beijinho, Raquel
Raquel Seabra
Ola Gostei muito do seu artigo! Quanto mais estou fora do país mais sinto vitais as relaçoes com os PALOP. Que Angola e Moçambique não sejam como o Brasil em que claramente apanhamos o comboio ja muito tarde... Espero que esteja tudo bem por Lisboa. Um beijinho, Raquel
Jose R.
Paulo A tua análise está correctissima.
João Calqueiro
Um artigo bastante interessante sobre a realidade desses dois países que tantas ligações têm a Portugal. Mas grande parte dessas ligações dizem respeito ao passado pelo que é necessário renova-las para que esses países possam crescer com o apoio dePortugal, com tal as empresas portuguesas terão a acesso a um mercado de uma riqueza natural tremenda e com um potencial de crescimento elevadissimo. Concluir destacando esse espirito empreendedor e a força de vontade existente, mas tal não chega sem know how

terça-feira, agosto 12, 2008

Artigo no Diário Económico de amanhã sobre Angola e Moçambique

Caros leitores e amigos

Amanhã estará outro artigo meu na edição em papel e online do Diário Económico, o jornal económico de referência em Portugal.

segunda-feira, agosto 11, 2008

EU Solar Energy

Location: New York
Author: Ken Silverstein, EnergyBiz Insider, Editor-in-Chief
Date: Monday, August 11, 2008

Europe's solar energy market may catch fire. Government subsidies there are playing a big part, all in an effort to help the continent reach its goal of increasing its renewable generation mix from 8 percent today to 20 percent by 2020.

The ultimate aim is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions tied to global warming. The European Union (EU) is a global leader and as such the member nations enacted incentive programs to achieve their desired results. It all bodes well for solar power. Growing demand, in fact, has helped reduce production costs through the advancement of solar-cell designs and manufacturing processes.

According to consulting firm Emerging Energy Research, Germany now accounts for roughly half of all the installed solar capacity in the world. Within the EU, it is followed by Spain. The countries make up 92 percent of the continent's installed photovoltaic (PV) solar capacity of about 1,500 megawatts. Italy, Greece, France and Portugal are expected to produce the lion's share of PV projects in the coming years. But the establishment of subsidized programs in other markets that include the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Switzerland has set off a off a wave of PV expansion.

"The European solar PV market is becoming increasingly fragmented across the value chain from manufacturers to project owners with installers and developers operating in the continuum" says the firm's senior analyst Reese Tisdale. Emerging PV-based power producers range from renewable energy utilities to specialized solar PV plant owners looking to gain market share. They include German developers Conergy, City Solar and Phoenix Solar as well as such as utilities as Electricite de France, Iberdrola, Electrabel and Enel.

"Given their existing contacts with commercial and industrial clients, and a proven appetite for renewables, European utilities are well-positioned to enter the PV generation market as the sector transitions toward rooftop installations," says Tisdale.

One of the keys to this growth is "feed-in tariffs." Such government incentives guarantee each plant operator a fixed tariff for electricity generated that is channeled into the grid. Each grid system operator is obliged to pay the statutory fee, which is dependent on the technology used and the year of installation. Ultimately, though, the cost of solar must drop at least 50 percent to compete with other alternatives -- something that investment banking firm Morgan Stanley says is possible within five years.

The rapid growth of the solar sector, however, is a double-edge sword. That's because the supply side has not been able to keep up with demand, forcing industry players to seek cheaper but less efficient solar cells. Silicon is prevalent today but "thin film" is giving it a run for the money. To survive, Tisdale says that the players will have to demonstrate that they are nimble and can adapt to readily changing market conditions.

Global Model

PV is a type of technology that converts sunlight directly into electricity. It is the fastest growing energy technology in the world, increasing at an average annual rate of 48 percent since 2002. While Europe's PV market is 1,500 megawatts, the U.S. solar PV market is roughly 500 megawatts -- a figure induced, in large part, by existing tax credits. By nearly all estimates, solar energy use globally will continue upward.

Without question, Germany remains the world leader. U.S. utilities have thus set out to learn from the German experience. At a recent fact-finding mission, those companies learned about feed-in tariffs, solar technologies and grid-integration processes. Toward that end, they discovered that even with solar penetration rates of 20-30 percent, grid integration issues are not a problem for German power producers.

"Germany has established a national renewable program that has achieved impressive results in terms of the large amounts of solar deployed and innovative developments in solar technology," says Roy Kuga, vice president of energy supply for Pacific Gas & Electric and a member of the delegation. "The technology innovations are directly transferable to the U.S. and will facilitate the scalability and competitiveness of solar."

Utilities in this country are seeking to diversify their fuel supplies to meet clean air requirements and certain renewable portfolio standards. Europe is propelled by similar rules, although member states are signatories to the Kyoto Protocol that obligates them to reduce their heating trapping emissions.

Fostering the increased use of solar energy is therefore an absolute necessity in Europe. While expensive and time-consuming, some scientists said just recently that a relatively small amount of sunlight from Southern Africa and the Middle East could one day meet all of the continent's energy needs. The never-ending sun in those places helps defuse the argument that renewable power is intermittent.

Those scientists, from European Commission's Joint Research Centre, say that it would take billions of dollars and another four decades to achieve such ambitious results. Along those lines, the EU must not only build huge solar farms but it must also construct a "supergrid" to carry the electricity over long distances and high voltage lines.

"For the EU to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent by 2020, many of the required technologies have already been made available while others are in the final stages of development," says Giovanni de Santi and Magda Moner, of the research group. "PV technology is one important element of this technology portfolio." The investment should also include cleaner coal and second generation bio-fuels, they say.

Europe's strategy to bolster its solar supplies could become a global model. It's a pursuit centered on providing incentives and enforcing environmental mandates, all to attract savvy participants, improve technologies and bring down costs.

Republished with permission from CyberTech, Inc. EnergyBiz Insider is published three days a week by Energy Central. For more information about Energy Central, or to subscribe to EnergyBiz Insider, other e-newsletters and EnergyBiz magazine, please go to http://www.energycentral.com/.

TESCO on the Move...

Location: New York
Author: Peter Welch & Steve Worthington
Date: Monday, August 11, 2008

At the end of July 2008, Tesco, the U.K.’s largest supermarket group, announced it is to buy the Royal Bank of Scotland’s (RBS) share in their 50/50 joint venture Tesco Personal Finance (TPF) and take full control. The move, widely expected, brings to an end Tesco’s eleven year partnership with RBS. It forms part of a strategy by Tesco to increase its share in fast growing services markets.

Tesco’s decision appears nothing if not brave. In the wake of Northern Rock and the credit crunch, the U.K.’s financial services looks like a market to avoid rather than invest in. Yet despite a deteriorating climate, Tesco has signaled ambitious plans for TPF. Over time, the retailer plans to "extend its financial services business from a collection of popular financial products to that of a full service retail bank." Given market conditions and retailers’ mixed record in financial services, can Tesco make this work?

TPF is profitable, reporting profit before tax of £206 million for 2007 on net assets at year end of approximately £560 million. But the business is comparatively small, with, in Tesco’s own words, material market positions in only two core segments – namely car insurance (4.3 percent) and credit cards (6.9 percent). Insurance represented over 60 percent of TPF’s 2007 profit before tax. Tesco’s buyout of RBS is based on the objective of expanding TPF beyond car insurance and credit cards. It plans both to build TPF’s share in those segments where it currently has smaller market positions [for example, home insurance (two percent) and savings (0.8 percent)] and to enter new retail banking segments.

However, even before considering where TPF might expand, it is worth noting that the business faces tough challenges in its current core markets. Both car insurance and credit cards are highly competitive, with the latter under major economic and regulatory pressure. While TPF currently has a high quality credit card book, the U.K. market is now ex-growth and a downturn may put the loan books of even the most conservative issuers under pressure. In addition, regulatory intervention is squeezing or threatening key revenue streams, notably overlimit and late payment fees, PPI commissions, and interchange.

Tesco and TPF also face specific strategic questions in each of the segments. With car insurance, TPF launched its insurance comparison portal, Tesco Compare, in 2007. But will it be credible for TPF to be both an insurance provider and comparison site operator in the longer-term? With the credit card business, there is the tension on interchange between TPF as an issuer and parent Tesco as a card acceptor. While interchange is an important revenue stream for TPF, its retail parent is a strong opponent of the way in which rates are set and supporter of regulatory intervention by the OFT and European Commission.

Of the other retail banking segments that TPF might consider entering, the two largest are clearly mortgages and current accounts. Indeed, it is difficult to see how TPF could be developed into a full service retail bank without offering at least one of the two. With the former, TPF has made a virtue of its absence from mortgages and therefore lack of exposure to some of the difficulties currently being experienced by may banks. This hardly suggests a keenness to enter the market. And, from a new entrant’s perspective, prospects for the U.K. mortgage market are probably as bad as they have been for a decade. With the latter, Tesco intriguingly says its plans for the future development of TPF include the possibility of a current
account product. However, the characteristics of the U.K. current account market – notional "free banking" and, in the words of the Office of Fair Trading (OFT), much of banks’ revenue "derived opaquely" – make it difficult for new entrants to develop a viable product. Consumers would no doubt welcome a TPF current account with a decent credit interest rate and lower unauthorized overdraft charges. But then where do TPF’s current account revenues come from?

TPF may be anticipating that the OFT’s current investigation of unarranged overdraft charges and actions following its recent study of current accounts will change the market’s economics. For example, were the OFT to limit unarranged overdraft charges in the way they have limited overlimit and late payment fees on credit cards, this may force significant changes in banks’ pricing of current accounts. And this in turn may allow TPF to introduce a product that is both competitive and financially viable. But the full implications of the OFT’s investigation remain far from clear.

No longer under any pressure or obligation to do things the traditional bank way, TPF may bring some fresh ideas to the design and delivery of financial services. TPF has already shown an innovative approach with its travel insurance. Clubcard holders can pick up a pack in-store and take it to the checkout with the rest of their shopping. As soon as the insurance pack is scanned along with the Clubcard, the customer is insured. But even here, TPF’s capacity to innovate may in practice be limited. There are very few financial services that can be sold in this way, and regulatory and data protection constraints often push in the opposite direction. And the hard truth is that bringing greater transparency to financial services can mean losing the opaquely derived revenue on which profitability may depend.

Given its size and track record, few would want to bet against Tesco. And its move is a welcome boost for the beleaguered financial services sector. But expanding its presence in U.K. retail banking at this point in the cycle is an ambitious move indeed.

segunda-feira, julho 21, 2008

Lagoa de Santo André: corrida dos 10 km

As classificações:
http://www.revistaatletismo.com/Resultados/s_andre_geral08.txt

um blogue muito interessante:http://diariodeumacorrida.blogspot.com/2008/07/corrida-da-lagoa-de-santo-andr-2008.html
http://mariasemfrionemcasa.blogspot.com/2008/07/xiii-corrida-da-lagoa-de-santo-andr-19.html
E um outro igualmente:

Corrida dos 10 km da Lagoa de Santo André

Foi este pretérito Sábado. 10 km de corrida, num piso combinado de estrada e terra batida (pelo interior do pinhal), num sobe e desce acentuado. Excelente preparação física era condição mínima para se poder chegar ao fim.
Cerca de 500 atletas, com elevada estampa física. Corrida lançada em moldes muito rápidos, apesar dos quase dois mil metros iniciais em subida...

João Ralha a fugir e a andar isolado de nós durante 8.800 metros. Só a esforço nos conseguimos recolar, mesmo a tempo para os últimos 1.200 metros, já com a meta a avistar-se ao fundo de uma recta.

Últimos três quilómetros em bases muito rápidas.

Um tempo global engraçado.

Uma paisagem e um enquadramento cénico incrivelmente belos.

A repetir e a aconselhar.